US Strategy: A Year in Review 2025
Winnie Cisar - Global Head of Strategy, 糖心视频
Zachary Griffiths, CFA - Head of IG & Macro Strategy, 糖心视频
Logan Miller - Head of European Strategy, 糖心视频
Brian Perez - Analyst, Credit Strategy, 糖心视频
Kathleen Tang - Analyst, Strategy, 糖心视频
23 December 2025
Insights into US Strategy: A Year in Review 2025, including:
- US credit markets demonstrated extraordinary resilience:聽Markets bounced back from destabilizing shocks with firm buy-the-dip sentiment prevailing throughout.
- Liberation Day tariffs disrupted spreads significantly:聽However, IG spreads widened twelve basis points while HY surged sixty-eight basis points higher.
- Federal Reserve maintained cautious easing approach:聽Fed cut rates gradually addressing labor market concerns and persistent inflation pressures.
- Geopolitical tensions remained elevated throughout year:聽Consequently, conflicts involving Israel, Iran, Russia and Ukraine dominated headlines without derailing performance.
- 2026 outlook signals turning point ahead:聽Weakening labor markets and consumer slowdown expected to challenge previously insatiable risk appetite.
Executive Summary
Reflecting on 2025 reveals monthly performance trends and key investment themes throughout the year. Markets demonstrated extraordinary resilience by bouncing back from destabilizing shocks with firm buy-the-dip mentality.
Attractive Treasury yields outweighed tight spread concerns as investors maintained strong risk appetite in 2025. However, 2026 may mark a turning point as labor weakness could trigger consumer-led slowdown.
Geopolitical tensions remained elevated with conflicts involving Venezuela, Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, and South Pacific nations. Despite these risks, markets absorbed shocks and maintained momentum with only brief performance interruptions.
AI industry volatility sparked both excitement and anxiety among investors throughout the year. Additionally, technology’s impact on productivity, employment, and investment decisions will face increased scrutiny ahead.
Trump administration’s assertive policies on immigration fueled widespread social unrest and political tensions. Investors appeared less reactive, preferring to tune out short-term political noise for longer-term positioning.
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