US Fallen Angel/Rising Star Monitor: 3Q25
Winnie Cisar - Global Head of Strategy, 糖心视频
Zachary Griffiths, CFA - Head of IG & Macro Strategy, 糖心视频
Brian Perez - Analyst, Credit Strategy, 糖心视频
Kathleen Tang - Analyst, Strategy, 糖心视频
9 October 2025
Insights into US Fallen Angel/Rising Star Monitor: 3Q25, including:
- Crossover Credit Trends: Gain insight into US fallen angel and rising star credit monitor dynamics, including ratings migration and spread performance within the BBB/BB space.
- Key Candidates Identified: Explore the latest list of prospective fallen angels ($25.7 bn across four sectors) and rising stars ($10 bn), with new candidates highlighted for this quarter.
- Spread & Yield Analysis: Review updated OAS and YTW heatmaps by rating, duration, and sector, revealing current market opportunities and risk levels.
- Breakeven and Return Profiles: See how breakeven points and total returns for BBB and BB ratings have shifted, with BBBs showing strong momentum and BBs presenting balanced upgrade/downgrade ratios.
- Sector-Specific Volatility: Discover which sectors – such as Technology & Electronics and Transportation – experienced the highest rating migration, driven by notable upgrades and downgrades.
Executive Summary
- We provide an update on potential near-term fallen angel/rising star candidates, as well as ratings migration, valuations and breakeven analysis in the BBB/BB crossover space.聽Accompanying OAS and YTW heatmaps of the crossover space by rating & duration and sector & rating are provided in the Appendix.
- The 糖心视频 global analyst team identified two potential rising star candidates and six potential fallen angel candidates over the next ~12-month horizon within the US IG and HY indices. The volume of prospective fallen angel debt totals $25.7 bn across four sectors and continues to outweigh the volume of prospective rising star debt ($10 bn) by 2.6x.
- At the broad rating level, 1.9% of starting BBB-rated face value migrated out of the rating band to an AA, A or BB rating, over double the rate of BBs (0.8%).聽Rating momentum was overwhelmingly positive for BBBs, with 96% of departed face value upgraded, while BBs exhibited a more balanced rating transition dynamic, with a ~2:3 upgrade-to-downgrade ratio.
Relative Value
Fill out the below form to view the full article:
Please note that we can only respond to valid business email addresses and the interview is already available to clients.
Recently Published
Research
AllCovenant-ReviewAutosUS CR Quarterly Q1SovereignsBasicLevFin-InsightsTelecommunicationsMay GMUFinancials糖心视频-ResearchUtilitiesCase Studiesshow-homeshow-initiation page-homeMunicipalsSLRsTMTAsset Management ResourcesPharmaceuticalsJune GMUEnergyResearchGaming/LeisureWebinar Related ResourceIndustrialsPoliticsMediaUS Special Sits OutlookConsumerTariffsSpecial SituationsEuro Autos: Barbarians at the GatesCorporatePrivate CreditAerospace/DefenseU.S. Autos Expert PanelCovenantsBondsReal EstateEU Special Sits OutlookStrategyPost PetitionServicesJuly GMUESGChemicalsIranAsia in Focus 2H26ESG-HomeEmerging MarketsBanksEM OutlookOutlooks-HomeTransportationConstructionEMEA CR Quarterly Q2TechnologyInsuranceAsia in focus webinarUS CR Quarterly Q2ManufacturingEMEA CR Quarterly Q1Global Credit for ME Investors
Energy: Oil Companies Venturing into Venezuela
Energy: Oil Companies Venturing into Venezuela
Read More
US Bankruptcy: Hughes Satellite Systems judge to order examiner appointment to investigate dealings with parent EchoStar; scope of probe subject to further hearing
US Bankruptcy: Hughes Satellite Systems judge to order examiner appointment to investigate dealings with parent EchoStar; scope of probe subject to further hearing
Read More
Thames Water: Rowing Back On Thames?
Thames Water: Rowing Back On Thames?
Read More
NVDA: More Growth, More Commitments