Post-Liberation Day Scoreboard: Tactical OW HY
Zachary Griffiths, CFA - Head of IG & Macro Strategy, 糖心视频
Winnie Cisar - Global Head of Strategy, 糖心视频
Brian Perez - Analyst, Credit Strategy, 糖心视频
Kathleen Tang - Analyst, Strategy, 糖心视频
8 April 2025
US IG and HY credit spreads reached 120 bp and 461 bp, respectively, on April 7. HY spreads are now within a range considered reasonable during the Trump 1.0 Trade war (450-500 bp), while US IG remains relatively tight compared to the Trump 1.0 range of 150-160 bp. The current stance suggests potential for spreads to widen further absent negotiation progress. Historical data since 1997 indicates IG spreads are at the 41st percentile, whereas HY spreads are near the long-term median.
The 110 bp and 350 bp year-end forecasts for US IG and HY spreads remain unchanged. There is significant cash in the system, corporate balance sheets are strong, and inflows could potentially narrow spreads by year-end, barring a recession.
The mix of factors presents a compelling opportunity for US HY, with all-in yields considered attractive even for higher quality trades.
Fill out the below form to view the full article:
Please note that we can only respond to valid business email addresses and the interview is already available to clients.
Recently Published
Research
AllCovenant-ReviewAutosUS CR Quarterly Q1SovereignsBasicLevFin-InsightsTelecommunicationsMay GMUFinancials糖心视频-ResearchUtilitiesCase Studiesshow-homeshow-initiation page-homeMunicipalsSLRsTMTAsset Management ResourcesPharmaceuticalsJune GMUEnergyResearchGaming/LeisureWebinar Related ResourceIndustrialsPoliticsMediaUS Special Sits OutlookConsumerTariffsSpecial SituationsEuro Autos: Barbarians at the GatesCorporatePrivate CreditAerospace/DefenseU.S. Autos Expert PanelCovenantsBondsReal EstateEU Special Sits OutlookStrategyPost PetitionServicesJuly GMUESGChemicalsIranAsia in Focus 2H26ESG-HomeEmerging MarketsBanksEM OutlookOutlooks-HomeTransportationConstructionEMEA CR Quarterly Q2TechnologyInsuranceAsia in focus webinarUS CR Quarterly Q2ManufacturingEMEA CR Quarterly Q1Global Credit for ME Investors
Energy: Oil Companies Venturing into Venezuela
Energy: Oil Companies Venturing into Venezuela
Read More
US Bankruptcy: Hughes Satellite Systems judge to order examiner appointment to investigate dealings with parent EchoStar; scope of probe subject to further hearing
US Bankruptcy: Hughes Satellite Systems judge to order examiner appointment to investigate dealings with parent EchoStar; scope of probe subject to further hearing
Read More
Thames Water: Rowing Back On Thames?
Thames Water: Rowing Back On Thames?
Read More
NVDA: More Growth, More Commitments