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Executive Summary

Belgium is the key market for Telenet and Proximus, while Digi is expanding operations from scratch. Orange maintains exposure through its majority stake in Orange Belgium.

The market has been relatively stable but competitive dynamics are shifting. Digi’s entry has had modest impact thus far, though the landscape is evolving as new entrants scale and established players push into historically weaker regions.

The retail outlook faces headwinds, but the wholesale environment is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Belgium is shifting from one of Europe’s most competitive network markets to among the least competitive, with significant consolidation reshaping the infrastructure landscape.

Telenet faces a bifurcating story with near-term stability masking longer-term strategic uncertainties. Network separation, potential M&A scenarios, and retail competition create questions around future value distribution.

Orange Belgium presents a constructive case driven by recent acquisition synergies and network-sharing arrangements. However, its impact on group-level performance remains limited.

Digi embodies the classic risk-reward tension as high prevailing prices create long-term opportunity for disruption. Near-term execution challenges and lacklustre competitive performance raise questions about timing and scale.