Energy: Iran Scenario Analysis + Winners & Losers
Charles Johnston, CFA: Head of Energy - 糖心视频
Ben Morgan, CFA: Senior Analyst, Energy - 糖心视频
02 March 2026
- How escalating tensions could push WTI crude from mid-$70s into triple digits, with Iran Scenario Analysis examining short-term strikes, prolonged conflicts, and potential Strait of Hormuz closures.
- Why the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global crude oil, refined products, and LNG daily, with minimal re-routing capacity available.
- How Saudi Arabia and UAE spare capacity could offset Iranian production losses of up to 1.5 MMbpd, though their own exports face Strait transit constraints.
- What Qatar’s complete reliance on the Strait means for global LNG markets, creating opportunities for alternative exporters to capture expanded arbitrage spreads.
- How higher commodity prices affect exploration and production companies, integrated energy firms, midstream operators, and oilfield services providers across the credit spectrum.
After some rumored progress late last week between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes across Iran, and Iran retaliated by launching strikes at U.S. positions across the Middle East. Commodity prices are sure to spike, but what happens next is unknown after Supreme Leader Khamenei has been confirmed dead.
There are three scenarios that we see playing out after Iran has said the Strait is 鈥減ractically closed鈥� and has vowed retaliation. Below we walk through those scenarios, review the importance of the Strait of Hormuz to global Energy markets and review some potential winners and losers within Energy credit.
For reference, geopolitical tensions with Iran have strongly supported prices this year, with WTI increasing ~$10 to $67 over the first two months of the year. The attacks over the weekend seem likely to push prices into the mid-$70s. From here, they could re-trace gains with OPEC+ announcing production increases over the weekend or could rally into the triple digits.
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Iran Tensions: Credit Risks, Resilience & Spread Drivers
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